Defending champion Italy could be headed home from World Cup with loss or draw

Italy needs a win to be sure of round-of-16 place

JOHANNESBURG — The World Cup is no place for defending champions, with only Italy in 1938 and Brazil in ‘62 repeating. The Azzurri are facing an early, ignominious departure from South Africa 2010 if they don’t beat Slovakia on Thursday.

Sure, a draw could push the Italians into the second round from Group F, but only if Paraguay beats New Zealand is that assured. A victory (10 a.m. at Johannesburg) keeps Italy alive without question.

“We’re worried,” midfielder Daniele De Rossi said. “I said it before and I’ll say it again: If we don’t make it past the first round it would be a failure.”

Italy’s forwards have had trouble scoring in their opening two games, 1-1 draws against Paraguay and 78th-ranked New Zealand.

“If we can’t win we don’t deserve to advance,” De Rossi added. “We’re Italy and we ought to be able to win one of these three games — otherwise it would only be fair to go home.”

Perhaps helping the Azzurri stay will be midfielder Andrea Pirlo. The playmaker appears recovered from a left calf injury that kept him out of the first two matches. He was a key to Italy’s title in 2006.

But Pirlo is an uncertain participant.

“I really want to weigh the options and choose the lineup with care, taking into consideration the players’ conditions and involving them in the decision,” coach Marcello Lippi said. “As long as we stay positive we have a chance.”

So do the Slovaks, who must win and have Paraguay either beat or draw with New Zealand (10 a.m. at Polokwane). Slovakia gave up a second-half injury-time goal to New Zealand in a 1-1 result, and then lost 2-0 to Paraguay.

“We missed our big chance with New Zealand and now it’s going to be very tough to qualify against Italy,” said Slovakia midfielder Marek Hamsik. “We’ve got to do more. Against Paraguay we weren’t able to put a shot on goal.”

The Paraguayans have typified how South America has performed thus far. Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay have advanced, and all La Albirroja need is a draw against the Kiwis to join the second-round party.

“These results have strengthened us mentally and spiritually, not just as football players but in our attitude as well,” coach Gerardo Martino said.

Paraguay has been to the final 16 in three previous World Cups.

This is, by far, the most successful run for New Zealand, which lost all three matches in its other appearance, 1982. A Kiwis win guarantees advancement and a draw could do the job, depending on how many goals New Zealand scores — and Italy drawing with Slovakia.

Group E already has a team in the next round, the Dutch. Although neither of their victories were impressive, they can rest regulars if they want in the game against Cameroon (2:30 p.m. at Cape Town). The Indomitable Lions were the first team eliminated.

Left wing Arjen Robben appears fully recovered from the left hamstring injury he sustained in a warm-up match against Hungary on June 5 and could play for the Netherlands, which also won all eight of its qualifiers, but in much more memorable form than its play in South Africa thus far.

“We don’t play that pretty yet. Fans and pundits say we should do better,” defender Joris Mathijsen acknowledged.

Maybe Robben can make that happen.

The winner of Denmark-Japan (2:30 p.m. at Rustenburg) will join the Dutch in the second round. Either team could win the group with a decisive victory and a Dutch loss.

Japan coach Takeshi Okada thinks more than tactics will be needed to win the match, saying he wants Japan “to fight.”

“It would be ideal if we can overwhelm the opposition by 10 goals,” Okada said. “But it won’t be that easy. I think it’s going to be a very close, fierce match.”