UBS math model predicts Brazil as FIFA World Cup winner
By ANIThursday, May 13, 2010
London, May 13 (ANI): UBS bankers have used a mathematical model to predict that Brazil will be the champions of the South Africa 2010 World Cup.
Brazil, who have claimed the trophy a record five times, are the likely winners this summer, with 22pc probability of victory, The Telegraph quoted the Swiss investment bank, as saying.
The UBS Wealth Management team found Spain, the European champions and bookmakers’ favourite, to have just a four percent shot at the title. So also was the case with Fabio Capello’s England.
UBS used its “econometric toolbox and quantitative models” to forecast the winner based on factors including historic results and the teams’ current “Elo ratings” - which take account of not only recent wins, losses and defeats, but the conditions under which those events occurred.
Beating a powerhouse like Brazil or Spain would improve a team’s Elo ranking much more than beating a smaller side like Malta or Andorra.
The bank also believes World Cup hosts South Africa, despite their uninspiring recent form, are all but guaranteed a place in the second round, rating their chances at 78pc.
Brazil are the second most likely to progress with 74 percent. The country least likely to progress, with a probability of just 29 percent, is Paraguay, UBS said. (ANI)
