Huskers hold the key: If Nebraska beats Texas, questions abound for BCS

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Nebraska can make a mess of BCS

Nebraska can make a mess of the BCS.

The 21st-ranked Cornhuskers play No. 3 Texas in the Big 12 championship game Saturday at Dallas Cowboys Stadium. If the Longhorns win — they’re 14-point favorites — then the Bowl Championship Series lineup gently falls into place.

Texas will play the winner of the Southeastern Conference championship game showdown between No. 1 Florida and No. 2 Alabama in the national title game on Jan. 7 in Pasadena, Calf.

A Longhorns’ victory also likely clears the way for Boise State to receive an at-large bid, as long as the Broncos handle lowly New Mexico State at home on Saturday.

It won’t quite be a gripe-free selection Sunday for the BCS — not with as many as three other teams sporting undefeated records and no chance of winning a national title — but relatively speaking, angst will be low.

Now if the Huskers pull the upset, things get murky.

Does No. 4 TCU, idle after completing its perfect season last week, slide into the spot Texas has reserved in the national title game?

Could No. 5 and unbeaten Cincinnati, which plays at Pittsburgh for the Big East championship, leapfrog the Horned Frogs into second-place in the BCS standings and earn an invite to Pasadena to face the SEC champion?

Or does a Texas loss set the stage for the first rematch in BCS history? Would the loser of the SEC title game, especially if it’s defending champion Florida, get the benefit of the doubt from the poll voters and earn another crack at its conference rival at the Rose Bowl?

So what happens if Nebraska beats Texas?

“It’s impossible to say for sure,” BCS analyst Jerry Palm “I think the computers will like Cincinnati and not TCU. I think the SEC runner-up is part of the equation, and it depends on how that game goes, how close they are.”

The BCS standings have three components. The Harris poll, the coaches’ poll and a compilation of six computer rankings. Each component counts for a third of a teams BCS average, and its points received in the polls, not placement, that is factored in.

“If voters feel strongly about a particular team, that team will win it,” Palm said. “If it’s a close vote, the more say the computers have. The more easily the computers can overturn the rankings.”

While TCU enjoys its week off, kicking back to pull for the Huskers, the Horned Frogs should also take some time to root for Pitt against the Bearcats.

“TCU is sitting there on the couch watching everybody else play and eating pizza,” Palm said. “That’s a bad place to be while Cincinnati is on the road playing a top-15 team, able to impress the voters.”

Palm said it is so difficult to predict what will happen if Nebraska wins because the teams involved are unlike any that have played in a BCS title game since the formula was changed to give poll voters the majority of the power in setting the championship matchup.

If Texas losses, Cincinnati wins and the SEC game is a down-to-the-wire classic, the choices will be:

— A team from a non-automatic qualifying conference (TCU).

— A team that did not win its conference (SEC runner-up).

— A Big East team with no past history of playing at a high level.

“You can’t assume traditional voting patterns would hold,” Palm said.

And what about Boise State? Well, if Nebraska wins the Big 12’s automatic BCS bid, Texas is a lock to be an at-large pick and the Broncos are looking at another perfect regular-season that lands them in a second-tier bowl game.

That should go over well among those who believe the BCS hates underdogs.

So if you like mystery, outrage and muddle, Nebraska is the team for you.

The picks:

Civil War for the Roses … OREGON 35-24.

Dan LeFevour and CMU looking for third MAC title in four seasons … CENTRAL MICHIGAN 41-24.

Just can’t pick against Tim Tebow … FLORIDA 27-24.

Colt McCoy, maintaining order in the BCS universe … TEXAS 28-10.

So, coach Brian Kelly, about that Notre Dame job … PITTSBURGH 35-31.

Broncos QB Kellen Moore makes last Heisman push … BOISE STATE 55-14.

Few will be watching, but it should be entertaining … GEORGIA TECH 38-31.

Cougars QB Case Keenum makes his last Heisman push … HOUSTON 38-30.

Huskies QB Jake Locker tunes up for NFL combines … WASHINGTON 28-21.

Trojans have won seven straight against Wildcats … USC 24-20.

Mountaineers have won 14 straight since 1994 against RU … WEST VIRGINIA 28-21.

Last week: 11-7 (straight); 9-9 (vs. points).

Season: 209-56 (straight); 127-118-4 (vs. points).